UOBAM Invest Digital Adviser Performance

  • UOBAM Invest Digital Adviser PerformanceUOBAM Invest Digital Adviser Performance

Q2 2024 Market developments

 

  • Global equities rose in the second quarter of the year with the Magnificent 7 stocks helping to drive global equities to record high.
  • However, global bonds experienced a slight dip as US treasury yield increased over the quarter.
  • Asian equities rebounded and outperformed global equities as Chinese authorities rolled out more property easing measures and investor sentiments improved.

 

Asset class performance (% in SGD terms)

 

Asset class performance (% in SGD terms)

 

 

Source: UOBAM/Bloomberg. Performance as at 30 June 2024.

Indices used as follows:
Global Equities: MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI);
Global Bonds: Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index;
Asian Equities: MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index; and
Asian Bonds: J.P.Morgan Asia Credit (JACI) Investment Grade Index on a Net Asset Value basis;
SGD Cash: 3M Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA)

Please note that there are limitations to the use of such indices as proxies for the past performance in the respective asset classes. The historical performance presented should not be used as a proxy for the future or likely performance.

 

 

Global equities rose in the second quarter of 2024, with several equity indices reaching record highs. The performance was driven mainly by the Magnificent 7 stocks, especially Nvidia, Apple and Amazon. Corporate earnings remained resilient, with Q1 earnings beating analysts’ expectations. The soft-landing narrative gained traction as continued disinflation was accompanied by some signs of gradual economic slowdown. May 2024 core consumer price index (CPI) came in at 3.4%, the lowest year-on-year increase since August 2021, while May 2024 core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was up 2.6%, the lowest annual gain since March 2021. US jobs growth remained strong as the nonfarm payrolls continued to beat expectations.

Asia equities had a strong quarter, outperforming global equities, as investor sentiments improved. The Chinese authorities unveiled a series of property easing measures to support the property market, including cutting minimum mortgage rates and downpayments, as well as providing 300 billion yuan to financial institutions to lend local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to buy unsold apartments that have already been built. Elsewhere in Asia, the Taiwanese market rose as semiconductor related stocks soared, with chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company gaining close to 30% on artificial intelligence (AI)-related exuberance.

Global bonds ended the quarter slightly lower as US government bond yields rose. Investors dialed back the number of expected rate cuts from six at the beginning of the year to two as of the end of the quarter as the economy and labour market remained strong. The shorter-term U.S. 2 Year Treasury yield rose from 4.6% to 4.8% while the U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield rose from 4.2% to 4.5% in response. Although inflation is moving in the right direction, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has indicated in its June meeting that inflation is not coming down fast enough and reiterated that it was not in a hurry to cut rates. The Fed has indicated that it expects to cut rates only once in 2024 as it focuses on the overall progress of inflation.

In contrast, Asian bonds rose in the second quarter as monetary policies remain accommodative and Asian economies remain resilient. Asian corporates continue to show strong credit fundamentals leading to a tightening of credit spread. Inflation is mostly under control, which would allow Asian central banks to cut rates sooner than the Fed. The high all-in yields above 5% makes Asian bonds attractive from an income carry perspective.

 

Performance for Individuals

 

 

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

 

  • As of 30 June 2024, UOBAM Invest portfolio returns for the second quarter, ranged between 1.4 percent to 4.5 percent.

 

Portfolio returns (% in SGD terms) 31 March 2024 – 30 June 2024

 

Portfolio returns (% in SGD terms) 31 December 2023 – 31 March 2024

 

 

Source: Factset / UOBAM. Portfolio returns as at 30 June 2024.

Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Portfolio returns on the scheme is calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

 

1. Very Conservative portfolio

 

Period (as at 30 June 2024) Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 1.4
6 months 4.3
1 year 5.6
Since Inception
(26 July 2020), per annum
-1.2

Very Conservative portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, this portfolio was up 1.4%. All asset classes had positive performance. The smallest contributor was Asia investment grade bonds while the largest contributor was global equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 5.6%. Asia equities detracted while the largest contributor was global equities.

 

2. Conservative portfolio

 

Period (as at 30 June 2024) Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 1.5
6 months 5.2
1 year 6.6
Since Inception
(26 July 2020), per annum
1.6

Conservative portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, this portfolio was up 1.5%. The smallest contributor was from Asia equities while the largest contributor was from global equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 6.6%. Asia equities detracted while the largest contributor was US equities.

 

3. Moderate portfolio

 

Period (as at 30 June 2024) Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 1.9
6 months 6.9
1 year 9.3
Since Inception
(26 July 2020), per annum
3.8

Moderate portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, this portfolio was up 1.9%. All asset classes had positive performance. The smallest contributor was the Europe equities while the largest contributor was global equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 9.3%. US growth equities detracted while the largest contributor was US equities.

 

4. Aggressive portfolio

 

Period (as at 30 June 2024) Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 2.6
6 months 9.2
1 year 12.9
Since Inception
(26 July 2020), per annum
6.7

Aggressive portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, this portfolio was up 2.6%. The smallest contributor was Europe equities while the largest contributor was US equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 12.9%. Global equities detracted while the largest contributor was US equities.

 

5. Very Aggressive portfolio

 

Period (as at 30 June 2024) Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 4.5
6 months 15.0
1 year 20.2
Since Inception
(26 July 2020), per annum
9.0

Very Aggressive portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, this portfolio was up 4.5%. All asset classes had positive performance. The smallest contributor was US government bonds while the largest contributor was US equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 20.2%. Global equities detracted while the largest contributor was US equities.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 

  • We maintain overweight in growth assets
  • Soft patch in economic data has made growth outlook more muddled, but we still expect stable expansion over the next year
  • Inflation improvements have slowed but we see moderate gains in the fight against inflation that will eventually allow for some rate cuts

 

Going forward, we remain optimistic as we see inflation continuing to moderate and expectations for the gradual economic slowdown scenario to play out. However, there are some concerns about the health of the consumer given weaker retail sales reports and the challenges companies face in an uncertain macro environment. There are also headwinds for markets in the form of bumpy disinflation which might further push back of rate cuts, expensive valuations, and narrow market breadth. Although the equity market rally has been intense, we do not foresee a recession on the horizon that will significantly undermine the rally and expect better market breadth than 2023. This presents an opportunity to seek out what has not appreciated as much, such as the Asia ex-Japan market where we see improving earnings growth and valuations are still attractive.

For fixed income, bond yields are higher than they have been in 15 years. The risks of interest rate hikes have faded and fixed income investments will continue to offer good interest income while providing protection by acting as an important portfolio stabiliser amid the fluid macro environment. Without recession risk in the near term, we see opportunities to pick up additional credit spreads via both investment grade and high yield bonds.

Markets look to be well supported as investors continue to buy on dips. Many investors have been content with fixed deposit rates, but investments have beaten cash rates in 2023 and are doing so again in 2024. It is an attractive time to invest and stay invested. As always, we recommend investors to build their wealth by staying vested in their portfolio for the long term through dollar cost average.

Performance for Corporates

 

 

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

 

  • As of 30 June 2024, the UOBAM Invest portfolio returns for the second quarter, 2024 ranged between 0.8 percent and 3.1 percent.

 

Portfolio returns (% in SGD terms) 31 March 2024 – 30 June 2024

 

Portfolio returns (% in SGD terms) 31 December 2023 – 31 March 2024

 

 

Source: Factset / UOBAM. Portfolio returns as 30 June 2024.

Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Portfolio returns on the scheme is calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

 

1. Very Conservative portfolio

 

Period Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 0.8
6 months 1.3
1 year 2.8
Since Inception
(18 Dec 2019), per annum
-2.9

Very Conservative portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, this portfolio was up 0.8%. All asset classes had positive performance except Singapore government bonds. The smallest contributor was global investment grade bonds while the largest contributor was money market funds.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 2.8%. The smallest contributor was global investment grade bonds while the largest contributor was money market funds.

 

2. Conservative portfolio

 

Period Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 1.3
6 months 2.6
1 year 4.2
Since Inception
(18 Dec 2019), per annum
-0.3

Conservative portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, this portfolio was up 1.3%. All asset classes had positive performance except Singapore government bonds. The smallest contributor was Asia investment grade bonds while the largest contributor was Asia equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 4.2%. The smallest contributor was global investment grade bonds while the largest contributor was global equities.

 

3. Moderate portfolio

 

Period Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 1.7
6 months 4.9
1 year 6.7
Since Inception
(18 Dec 2019), per annum
0.1

Moderate portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, the portfolio was up 1.7%. All asset classes had positive performance. The smallest contributor was the global investment grade bonds while the largest contributor was Asia equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 6.7%. Global equities detracted while the largest contributor was US equities.

 

4. Aggressive portfolio

 

Period Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 2.0
6 months 5.7
1 year 8.0
Since Inception
(18 Dec 2019), per annum
1.4

Aggressive portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, this portfolio was up 2.0%. All asset classes had positive performance. The smallest contributor was the US government bonds while the largest contributor was Asia equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 8.0%. Global equities detracted while the largest contributor was global high yield bonds.

 

5. Very Aggressive portfolio

 

Period Portfolio Return (%)
3 months 3.1
6 months 9.9
1 year 13.3
Since Inception
(18 Dec 2019), per annum
4.0

Very Aggressive portfolio

Source: UOBAM as of 30 June 2024

The information about asset allocation provided herein are subject to change at the discretion of UOBAM without prior notice. Past performance of the portfolio or UOBAM and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast on the economy or markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the portfolio or UOBAM. Returns are calculated on a single pricing basis.

 

For the three-month period ending 30 June 2024, the portfolio was up 3.1%. All asset classes had positive performance. The smallest contributor was the global equities while the largest contributor was Asia equities.

Over the one-year period, the portfolio gained 13.3%. Europe equities was the smallest contributor while the largest contributor was US equities.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 

  • We maintain overweight in growth assets
  • Soft patch in economic data has made growth outlook more muddled, but we still expect stable expansion over the next year
  • Inflation improvements have slowed but we see moderate gains in the fight against inflation that will eventually allow for some rate cuts

 

Going forward, we remain optimistic as we see inflation continuing to moderate and expectations for the gradual economic slowdown scenario to play out. However, there are some concerns about the health of the consumer given weaker retail sales reports and the challenges companies face in an uncertain macro environment. There are also headwinds for markets in the form of bumpy disinflation which might further push back of rate cuts, expensive valuations, and narrow market breadth. Although the equity market rally has been intense, we do not foresee a recession on the horizon that will significantly undermine the rally and expect better market breadth than 2023. This presents an opportunity to seek out what has not appreciated as much, such as the Asia ex-Japan market where we see improving earnings growth and valuations are still attractive.

For fixed income, bond yields are higher than they have been in 15 years. The risks of interest rate hikes have faded and fixed income investments will continue to offer good interest income while providing protection by acting as an important portfolio stabiliser amid the fluid macro environment. Without recession risk in the near term, we see opportunities to pick up additional credit spreads via both investment grade and high yield bonds.

Markets look to be well supported as investors continue to buy on dips. Many investors have been content with fixed deposit rates, but investments have beaten cash rates in 2023 and are doing so again in 2024. It is an attractive time to invest and stay invested. As always, we recommend investors to build their wealth by staying vested in their portfolio for the long term through dollar cost average.

MSCI Data are exclusive property of MSCI. MSCI Data are provided “as is”, MSCI bears no liability for or in connection with MSCI Data. Please see complete MSCI disclaimer here.

This document is for your general information only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendation or an offer or solicitation to deal in Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") or in units in any Unit Trusts ("Unit Trusts", ETFs and Unit Trusts shall together be referred to as "Fund(s)") nor does it constitute any offer to take part in any particular trading or investment strategy.

This document was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. The information is based on certain assumptions, information and conditions available as at the date of this document and may be subject to change at any time without notice. If any information herein becomes inaccurate or out of date, we are not obliged to update it. No representation or promise as to the performance of the Fund or the return on your investment is made. Past performance of any Fund or UOB Asset Management Ltd ("UOBAM") and any past performance, prediction, projection or forecast of the economic trends or securities market are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the Fund or UOBAM. The value of any Fund and the income from them, if any, may fall as well as rise, and may have high volatility due to the investment policies and/or portfolio management techniques employed by the Fund. Investments in any Fund involve risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested, and are not obligations of, deposits in, or guaranteed or insured by United Overseas Bank Limited ("UOB"), UOBAM, or any of their subsidiary, associate or affiliate ("UOB Group") or distributors of the Fund. Market conditions may limit the ability of the platform to trade and investments in non-Singapore markets may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations. The Fund may use or invest in financial derivative instruments and you should be aware of the risks associated with investments in financial derivative instruments which are described in the respective Fund’s prospectus. The UOB Group may have interests in the Funds and may also perform or seek to perform brokering and other investment or securities-related services for the Fund. Investors should read the Fund’s prospectus, which is available and may be obtained from UOBAM or any of its appointed agents or distributors, before investing. You may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser before making a commitment to invest in any Funds, and in the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider carefully whether the Fund is suitable for you. Any reference to any specific country, financial product or asset class is used for illustration or information purposes only and you should not rely on it for any purpose. We will not be responsible for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly in connection with, or as a result of, any person acting on any information provided in this document. Services offered by UOBAM Invest are subject to the UOBAM Invest Terms and Conditions.

This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

UOB Asset Management Ltd Co. Reg. No. 198600120Z